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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-02-16T13:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-02-16T13:23Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44685/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the E in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2026-02-16T13:23Z. This CME is also seen as a faint, partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. The source is most likely a large eruption best seen in SDO AIA 171 and SDO AIA 304 starting around 2026-02-16T12:18Z spanning S30E15 to S10W05. Subsequent dimming and an EUV wave can also be seen in SDO AIA 193. There is no clear arrival signature in solar wind on 2026-02-18 and 19. (Please note that there is a very weak/unclear CME arrival signature on 2026-02-20 (starting around 2026-02-20T22:35Z), with no accompanying increase in the solar wind speed, which is possibly a glancing blow from the the slower CME: 2026-02-16T14:08Z).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-02-19T20:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 60217
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Feb 2026, 1249UT
SIDC FORECAST

Coronal mass ejections: A faint and wider coronal mass ejection (CME) was
first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images starting around 14:00 UTC on Feb 16.
This CME is associated to a filament eruption in the S hemisphere (S3-25
W0-17) of the Sun starting around 12:30 UTC. It has a projected speed of
about 457 km/s and a projected width of about 110 deg. With its source
region closer to the central meridian, the corresponding ICME is expected
to impact the Earth on Feb 19-20. No other Earth-directed CMEs were
detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.

Lead Time: 44.03 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2026-02-17T23:58Z

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